niklas94

- While AI and ML have advanced computational pharmacology, no purely in silico model can yet fully predict how a drug will behave in a complex biological system.

- In vivo (animal) studies help detect off-target effects, immune responses, metabolism issues, and toxicity, which computational models cannot yet accurately replicate.

- The principle of precaution in biomedical ethics prioritizes human safety over speed, making regulatory bodies reluctant to bypass traditional preclinical evaluations.

- Although there is growing pressure to reduce animal testing, previous attempts to replace in vivo studies (e.g., with organ-on-chip technology or in vitro alternatives) have faced resistance from regulators, due to concerns about real-world safety validation.

- Pharmaceutical companies are risk-averse and unlikely to submit IND applications based only on in silico evidence, as it increases the risk of liability lawsuits.

- If a drug were approved based only on in silico data and caused harm in humans, the FDA and drug manufacturers could face significant legal and reputational consequences.

Seeing the biggest risk in Ethiopia. Debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework and ongoing domestic conflicts reflect vulnerabilities. While these factors do not guarantee default, they indicate potential strain if unexpected shocks arise. Still, the debt-to-GDP ratio is manageable. 

Judging by the news, I think Joseph Aoun will be elected.

It's already at war with enough countries through its proxies and satellite states. 

I have a feeling that the election in the US will impact NVIDIA's standing, When Donald Trump is inaugurated in January 2025, his administration will prioritise trade protectionism, including tariffs and restrictions on technology exports to key markets like China. This will significantly affect NVIDIA, given its reliance on international sales, especially in China, which is a major market for AI chips and GPUs. Also, other companies lime AMD and Intel are making strides in chip development, so they could take some market share.

I just don't think any of this is likely to occur.

Key Risk Factors in Africa: 

- Delayed or Cancelled Elections: Political transitions in Mali, Guinea-Bissau, and Sudan remain uncertain, with elections being delayed or outright canceled. Such vacuums often create opportunities for military intervention.

- Economic Hardship and Public Discontent: Rising inflation, food insecurity, and high youth unemployment continue to fuel discontent in many countries, weakening civilian governments' legitimacy.

- Security Instability: Ongoing conflicts with jihadist groups in the Sahel and power struggles in Sudan and Guinea-Bissau amplify instability.

Western disengagement in the Sahel and the rise of alternative security partnerships (e.g., Russia's Wagner Group) could embolden military factions to take action without fear of significant international repercussions.

I think the Sahel remains the most volatile region, with Burkina Faso and Sudan appearing particularly vulnerable. Additionally, Guinea-Bissau’s fragile political situation and Niger's delicate post-coup governance make them susceptible.