140th
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predictionman

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025? 0.043384
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025? 0.052399
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? 0.006196
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026? 0.000419
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? 0.000318
Dec 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act? 0.130611
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? -0.000078
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.000332
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? 0.000072
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.0291
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025? -0.010573
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.059263
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025? -0.017828
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.000398
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? -0.0002
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? 0.01394
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? -0.000329
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? 0.007685
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? -0.001258
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? -0.000057
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