NCEI website is currently down, but @ctsats notes that stats for YTD and January-June have been released. Given the difference is greater than 1,283,147 acres the threshold has been passed and this no longer technically counts as a prediction.
0.519953
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If data sources are in error for some reason
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
Yes
26%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As pointed out by others, 2025 has shown more consistency in months with greater than 50,000 lbs of seizures compared to other years. Though not consecutive months, the last year 4 months since the start of the year (Jan) showed seizures over 50,000 lbs was 2022, and in that year July seizures were also over 50,000 lbs. The current administration has made drug enforcement a central aspect of its platform and consistent increases in seizures indicate enhanced capabilities. A review of the number of local media releases on drug seizures by month (found here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/media-releases/all?combine=&field_date_release_value=All&field_newsroom_type_target_id_1=54) also potentially supports that July will result in large seizures (despite historical data tending to show drops after high seizure months).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Historically, based on the available data, exceeding 50,000 lbs of drugs seized in July is rare, and that coupled with the large seizure amount in June together indicates that July seizures will be lower than June seizures (despite historical data tending to show increases in seizures from June to July). Large drops month-to-month have also been shown in historical data, so dropping from 60,000lbs to below 50,000 lbs would not be unprecedented.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I looked at CBP statistics for traveler arrivals by month from 2019 to 2024 and concentrated on the percent difference in arrivals from June to July in each year. In each year July arrivals were larger than June arrivals. The range was a low of 8% to a high of 15% increase from June to July depending on the year. Even applying the highest percent increase seen in recent years to June 2025 numbers results in less than 37 million arrivals. This, combined with the current political and economic environment that should act to deter inbound travel makes it seem unlikely to me to see greater than 37 million inbound travelers - the highest number since 2019.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some articles I read seem to indicate increased inbound travel for certain months, at least as indicated by international carrier ticket sales. Even during COVID years, travel in July was greater than June, so we should expect some level of increase. Travel has decreased from Canada, but some evidence shows increased travel from Mexico. If last year was not an anomaly but the beginning of a trend, we might see increased travel despite the political and economic environment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
While most NATO members agreed on a 5% GDP defense spending target at the June 2025 summit, Spain secured concessions to increase spending to 2.1%. It does not seem likely Spain will change course before the end of July.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Though unlikely to have an impact by the end of July, there could be increased pressure put on Spain by the US, and in forms that might highly incentivize Spain to commit to a larger increase.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Current US retail gas prices average around $3.14. It would be highly unlikely for prices to spike to a level at or above $3.60 in a day.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there is some highly improbable large-scale disaster that has immediate effects on gas prices in the next few hours, like a tsunami, it could possibly affect gas prices. But this scenario is very unlikely.
Files
Please notice that we were not looking for a spike to $3.60 - since we are asked to forecast the average value for the whole of July, at least in the last 10 days or so, we were looking for a (lasting...) spike at least up to ~$4.65: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/187886
In any case, this is officially over now, since the monthly price for July was already published by our resolution source at $3.250: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/190087 (friendly advice: keeping an eye on the recent comments and rationales can be of great help).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-19%)
Less than 2.3%
11%
(-59%)
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
89%
(+80%)
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
June inflation was at 2.7. Given economic forecasts and uncertainty and effects of tariffs, I would expect inflation to stay at the June level or increase.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Larger than expected economic slowdown or slow to see tariff effects could act to decrease inflation slightly.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Answering now but acknowledging this barely counts as a prediction given I did not (and should have) answered this question earlier. With 2 hours to go the chances of Iran and the US announcing a nuclear deal in light of recent events and hostilities is extremely small.
Why might you be wrong?
A last minute unexpected twist