According to the trend of past cases occurring in Aug., it doesn't go over the 500 range. So anywhere <500 appears safe to guess.
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Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 250
10%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
90%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
0%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong because some of the cases in the past have been relatively lower (~200 range).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The four most notable wildfires in July so far (Cram Fire, Madre Fire, White Saga Fire, Dragon Bravo Fire, Green Fire) estimate up to approximately 260,000 acres lost.
There is no set trend in recent years for July, so it is hard to tell.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may likely be wrong because of the difficulty of finding the most recent data.
Files
I may likely be wrong because of the difficulty of finding the most recent data.
Not sure what you mean. Historical data for July are available here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/wildfires/1/7 , while the most recent data (of today, July 25) are here (and in the links therein): https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/188538
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
8%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
88%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
4%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
From Jan-April 2025, the inflation rate had been slowly decreasing. However, it increased 1% from April (2.3%) to May (2.4%), and spiked to 2.7% in June.
Therefore, I predict it will stay around the 2.7 range for July. This is also because there's a trend of the rate increasing for two months now.
In 2024, the rate decreased slightly from June (3.0%) to July (2.9%). But in 2023, the rate increased from June (3.0%) to July (3.2%). Therefore, I can't see a common trend in the most recent years to best compare to this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because I'm not educated on the source of the rise or fall of interest rates. All I can do it evaluate the trends.
I'm making an assumption that maybe the summer season may have an impact.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Escalations have reduced.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Since relations are still tense, events could still change.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There have not been any drastic updates on this.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A dramatic event could occur to drastically change things.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Relations have not improved.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Diplomacy is often done in private, so there may be more to the story that we don't have access to.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There has not been any unexpected rise in instability.
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong because there's always a chance that a false flag could happen.