Adjusting upward based on comments from other forecasters, driven by administration priorities, and historic data.
2.154947
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+5%)
Yes
40%
(-5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rare events may still occur driving up seizures considerably.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
31%
(-53%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
46%
(+37%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
16%
(+16%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
I notice that there is wider distribution in predictions from experts, based on reports of increased hostile activity and starvation. However, this is also balanced with increased attention toward humanitarian aid, driving a ceasefire. And so the net result appears to be more uncertainty (wider variation in estimates).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are still many events (good and bad) which could drive strong results (and predictions) one way or the other.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-24%)
Yes
99%
(+24%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
As we approach the end of the month, there is more confidence in these estimates
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden shock such as a data breach to critical infrastructure may be disclosed, causing a sharp rise. However, that is unlikely now.
Files
Please notice that we now have more than "estimates" - the official value was published yesterday at $3.250: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/190087
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+3%)
Less than or equal to 1349
77%
(+77%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
15%
(+1%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
5%
(-77%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
My initial estimate was much higher, driven by early signs of outbreaks. However, based on current trends, I'm adjusting probabilities to much lower ranges.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could still be a crazy outbreak.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+70%)
Less than or equal to 1
26%
(-53%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
4%
(-17%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
My initial estimate was way off, and so seasonal trends and other estimates using better sources suggest a much higher probability of fewer events.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Again, freak events could occur.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Less than 2.3%
12%
(-59%)
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
71%
(+52%)
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
12%
(+12%)
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Current best predictions by the Fed suggest this range between 2.6 and 2.9. There appears to be stability during these summer months, settling on this range of upper 2%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unlikely that a sudden event would occur before this forecast closes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-51%)
Yes
85%
(+51%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Many convincing comments by experts suggest that withdraw is highly unlikely due to historic precedence, administration inaction, and administration priorities on other areas.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some unexpected local event could arise, driving a sudden reduction in force.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
0%
(-70%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
62%
(+62%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
8%
(+8%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing my estimates for higher counts, given that past months, and july seem to be increasing more than I expected.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I feel that I would be most likely to greatly underestimate (rather than overestimate) the numbers, due to a rare but extreme event affecting millions of people.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I notice greater variation in estimates across experts, and so I am reducing my strongest estimate of 630-659.
Why might you be wrong?