Recent violence trends show persistence, not decline: ACLED data reveals Mexico had 641 incidents in May 2025, 705 in April, and 650 in March - indicating violence remains elevated despite government claims of improvement.
Structural drivers remain unaddressed: Over 115,000 people are still missing, impunity rates exceed 90%, and the criminal justice system prosecuted only 16 of 186 journalist attack cases according to the US State Department. These fundamental problems haven't changed under Sheinbaum's new administration.
Cartel dynamics are destabilizing: The Sinaloa Cartel fragmentation between Los Mayitos and Los Chapitos factions continues, with hundreds killed since September 2024. CJNG is exploiting this chaos to expand territorially, particularly in Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Guerrero.
Political violence escalated dramatically in 2024: The Institute for Economics & Peace documented 201 political assassinations in 2024 - the highest on record. With judicial elections scheduled for June 2025, criminal groups have increased incentives to influence political processes.
Multiple expert sources converge on continued high violence: Wilson Center, Freedom House, Human Rights Watch, ACLED, and academic institutions like CIDE all emphasize that militarized security strategies haven't addressed root causes, and organized crime continues expanding into local governance.
Historical August patterns support baseline expectations: ACLED's consistent methodology shows August typically produces 596-641 incidents, establishing a reliable measurement framework that recent months suggest will continue.
Why do you think you're right?
Dark web intelligence reveals active expansion: Qilin ransomware group dominated June 2025 with 86 victims and is actively recruiting affiliates after RansomHub's collapse. DragonForce announced a "Ransomware Cartel" model to absorb displaced operators, indicating organizational growth rather than contraction.
Historical trend analysis supports upward trajectory: August data shows clear progression - 198 (2022), 398 (2023), 449 (2024) - indicating sustained 50-100% year-over-year growth. Recent 2025 monthly data (March 965, April 528) suggests volatility around a higher baseline.
Business leaders emphasize AI enhancement: Elastio CEO Najaf Husain and Eastman CISO Adam Keown both highlight AI sophistication making attacks more effective, with predicted costs reaching $275B by 2031.
Government countermeasures acknowledge persistent threat: Biden administration's January 2025 executive order and Anne Neuberger's statements focus on "making it costlier" for criminals rather than claiming victory, indicating official recognition of continued high activity.
Why might you be wrong?
Law enforcement disruption effects could be underestimated: Check Point Research noted 6% decline in Q2 2025 due to continued enforcement pressure. Major takedowns of LockBit and other groups may have larger cascading effects than my analysis captures.
Ransomware-as-a-Service fragmentation could reduce efficiency: The collapse of major operations like RansomHub and fragmentation into smaller groups might reduce overall victim counts even as the number of active groups increases.
Economic factors could limit targets: Rising interest rates and economic uncertainty may reduce the pool of viable targets with resources to pay ransoms, potentially lowering attack success rates.
Seasonal variations are unpredictable: August historically shows different patterns than other months, and summer vacation periods could either reduce targets or create opportunities my analysis doesn't account for.
Payment rate decline impacts: Check Point noted global payment rates dropped to historic lows of 25-27%, which could discourage attackers and reduce reported victim counts.