RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Emerging Technology (11) only
Geopolitical Security (27) only
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Russia-Ukraine War (13) only

Your Score

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024)

Closed Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 78 · 165

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 28, 2024 and Sep 28, 2024)

Closed Sep 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 89 · 186

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)

Closed Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 65 · 92

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 130

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)

Closed Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 110 · 192

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)

Closed Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 102 · 183

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 269 · 1186

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)

Closed Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 83 · 161