RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Emerging Technology (19) only
Forecaster Submissions (2) only
Geopolitical Security (24) only
Quickfire Forecasts (8) only
Russia-Ukraine War (10) only

Crowd Forecast

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 34 · 58

0%

Chance

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 116 · 509

1%

Chance

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 87 · 416

19%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 43 · 242

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 128 · 580

1%

Chance

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 139 · 801

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 119 · 773

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 142 · 969

6%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 207 · 1903

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 158 · 1633