RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Emerging Technology (11) only
Geopolitical Security (27) only
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In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Closed Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC · 54 · 321

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Closed Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC · 60 · 618

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Closed Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 104 · 608

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 269 · 1186

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?

Closed Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 77 · 400

Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?

Closed Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC · 98 · 428

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC · 103 · 752

Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?

Closed Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC · 117 · 506