RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)

Closed Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM UTC · 57 · 129

0%

Chance

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 88 · 551

6%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 711

12%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 118 · 994

1%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 120 · 1006

1%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 111 · 1008

0%

Chance

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 100 · 1029

0%

Chance

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

Closed Mar 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 47 · 631

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Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)

0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

6%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

12%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

0%

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

0%

6%

12%

1%

1%

0%

0%