Not sure whether it is "think I'm right" as much as it is "hope I'm right". Spain isn't one of the wealthier European members of NATO, nor are its military assets among Europe's most capable. It has economic issues, hence the 5% figure may be a valid concern. But Spain benefits from being a member of NATO. Like the UN, NATO requires unanimous agreements on key decisions, and both organizations struggle to reach agreements. Hopefully Spain will recognize that benefits outweigh costs in this instance .
1.485849
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Artificial Intelligence,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-5%)
Yes
75%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Spain frequently 'goes its own way' when it comes to European affairs. It is not a 'frontline' neighbor of Russia, and its economy isn't specially robust. Perceived costs might outweigh perceived benefits when it comes to committing to the NATO's 5% figure.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
10%
(0%)
Armenia
10%
(0%)
Georgia
10%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Russian system is obedient to Putin's rule. He isn't going away any time soon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He could somehow fall prey to the ancient Russian system of 'eliminating' one ruler at the hands of another would-be ruler.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
A big, bad bill it may be, but right now it is all we have. Put another way, if the BBB in its 'pure' form can't pass, then a 'defanged' version could possibly be passed by a purely partisan vote of democrats and a MAGA minority. The midterm elections are looming up, and no politician wants to be the one who tossed grandma off of Medicade right before that election.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
POTUS will work hard to get his MAGA gang to oppose any modifications being made to his BBB. If democrats and some nervous MAGA colleagues modify the BBB, then POTUS' marching orders will be for his core to vote against it. Midterms are on the horizon and many legislators need POTUS' support. Better to let the BBB fail than to cross POTUS right before those elections.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
More members are seeing the need, and are beginning to see that rightly or wrongly, POTUS isn't blowing smoke about the US reconsidering its commitment to NATO. His focus is more on the Indo Pacific region than on Europe.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not all NATO members have high levels of trust in what POTUS says or threatens to do or not due. His credibility isn't especially high among those nations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Israel (ally and proxy of US) is attacking Iran (ally and proxy of Russia, and enemy of US) with the help of the US. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine and shows no signs of being willing to stop doing so. POTUS is using his usual chaotic negotiating style to put pressure on Russia to make a deal in Ukraine along with terminating Iran's possible development of atomic weapons. If this strategy somehow works, then Israel and the US sort of win, Iran definitely loses, Russia sort of loses and wins, and Ukraine sort of wins.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia might decide to actively support its ally and proxy, Iran. POTUS might overplay his hand by getting the US actively involved in Iran. US congress might decide to function, and block US involvement in Iran. Putin might decide to make a deal in Ukraine and not support its ally Iran. Iran might surrender (not likely
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has enough on his plate as he continues to muddle through his invasion of Ukraine. Russia's economy is a bit unsteady right now. Plus, POTUS can't be counted on to do/not do something that would/would not interfere with Putin if he chose to invade the target countries.
Why might you be wrong?
Overall, I doubt that POTUS would be all that outraged if Putin did invade the noted countries since they probably don't strike him as bein all strategically important to his "America first" agenda but with this POTUS you never know how he will react. And Putin might opt to continue trying to rebuild a replica of an imaginary greater Russia.