Confirmed previous forecast
1.737313
Relative Brier Score
60
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 60 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Africa,
East Asia Security,
Mirror Life
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 5, 2025 10:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 5, 2025 to Apr 5, 2026
71%
(0%)
No
Oct 5, 2025 to Apr 5, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Estonia
10%
(0%)
Latvia
10%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 5, 2025 10:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
27%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 5, 2025 to Apr 5, 2026
73%
(0%)
No
Oct 5, 2025 to Apr 5, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.