Jim

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? -0.000073
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026? -0.000082
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? -0.000077
Dec 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act? -0.256737
Dec 11, 2025 09:34AM UTC Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive? 0.030735
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.001814
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.000059
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? -0.000239
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? 0.006149
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? -0.006636
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.067619
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? 0.002601
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.003046
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.000746
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000015
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.000471
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.007036
Jun 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 28, 2025 and Jun 28, 2025) 0.0
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.02924
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