Due to multiple political and logistical constraints, and the emerging preference for alternative security arrangements.
7.085313
Relative Brier Score
72
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 18 | 17 | 72 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Future Bowl,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
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Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
1%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
That Russia will provoke a conflict with one of the coalition countries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is no evidence that HUAWEI is allegedly colluding with O-RAN.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is impossible to announce an alliance
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
South Korea is a strategic ally, reducing its presence would be bad for the region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is a person who makes quick and ineffective decisions.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This is essential to monitor real progress in the fight against climate change and prevent countries from merely fulfilling formalities without implementing effective actions.
Why might you be wrong?
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