RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?	-0.01027
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?	0.197676
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	-0.040643
Dec 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC	What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?	-0.205353
Dec 11, 2025 09:34AM UTC	Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?	0.034319
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025)	-0.27519
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	-0.051216
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	-0.002089
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.04962
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?	0.025072
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.082987
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?	-0.041165
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.000886
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?	0.10981
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	0.005956
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?	0.236542
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC	How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?	-0.012088
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC	What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025?	-0.013154
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres?	0.071039
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	-0.013021

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