It's an unstable environment
5.004359
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Future Bowl,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Africa
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 22, 2024 11:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
70%
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
it’s highly unlikely a group will take credit for it.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(+3%)
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Aug 9, 2024
The tensions are already so high in the area that though I don't think it's impossible, it's highly improbable that there will be an attack in the near future.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 12, 2024 09:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Jan 12, 2024 to Jul 12, 2024
85%
No
Jan 12, 2024 to Jul 12, 2024
With the continued increase in tension and conflict within the Israel region and in the Middle East in general, a near missile attack remains somewhate possible, though unlikely.
Files
Iran is already involved with so many countries that I don't foresee another conflict with a completely separate state.