jrl

About:

Solution architect (former hands on programmer). Science fiction writer (short stories, some published). Previously participated in the original GJP. Not a superforcaster, but decent Brier score.

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All Time Stats

4.722708

Relative Brier Score

180

Forecasts

103

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 180
Comments 0 0 0 0 91
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 26
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 103
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security, Iran: Threats & Influence, Russia-Ukraine War, Emerging Technology, Artificial Intelligence

Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs, Iran Nuclear Program, Mission: Diplomacy, Semiconductor Supply Chain, Mission: AI Advancement

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jrl earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
jrl made their 4th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Aug 2, 2024 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (-10%)
Yes
Jul 2, 2024 to Jan 2, 2025
95% (+10%)
No
Jul 2, 2024 to Jan 2, 2025

Dropping on lack of progress.

Files
New Prediction
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
jrl made their 7th forecast (view all):
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jrl quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM
Probability
Answer
90% (0%)
Yes
10% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
jrl made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (-5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
85% (+5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024

Dropping on lack of any news.

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
jrl made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
0% (-5%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Ru doesn't seem to be producing enough of either system to even meet their own requirements.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
jrl made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
jrl made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (-5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
85% (+5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024

Dropping on lack of ME peace progress.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
jrl made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
jrl made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
25% (0%)
Georgia
1% (-4%)
Kazakhstan

Dropping on Kazakhstan (on examining their politics, don't see any immediate conflict with Ru).

Staying high on Georgia, although no new news out of there since the passing of that anti-foreign agents law. Feels like it could escalate in the next year or so.

Files
Files
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