mdaniels

US has long held-across administrations-the policy position that Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Strikes by Israel have likely increased Iran incentives for nuclear weapons breakout while not fully destroying their capability to do so. Combined with the potential for Iranian proxies to conduct attacks against US interests in the ME, with or without Iranian regime direction, increases the likelihood that US will determine that strikes against remaining nuclear facilities is necessary and there is a window of opportunity with their current C2 and A2/AD degraded.

PRC direct military action against Taiwan remains unlikely in the near term due to lack of conditions set with military capability, on-island influence, and other geopolitical constraints including unpredictability of US actions.

RU cyber activity with varying levels of attribution has been ongoing for years in many countries, and unpredictability of knock-on effects from a cyber attack could result in unintended physical or kinetic results.

Ongoing negotiations with key stakeholders on both sides of the war are pressing for a ceasefire. While a ceasefire may not hold, it is likely that both sides see advantage in pursuing one on terms they appear may be in their long term interest.