RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	0.03625
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	-0.007429
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	-0.001643
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.019998
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?	-0.000014
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.007944
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.000009
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	0.0
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres?	-0.000057
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	0.010059
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	0.0309
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?	0.0
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?	-0.00061
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?	-0.000604
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	-0.000053
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?	-0.000005
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC	Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)	0.074106
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)	-0.00022
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025)	-0.000423
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025)	-0.006897

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