RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	-0.000004
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?	0.001572
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC	Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)	0.025402
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC	On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?	0.004719
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.062906
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	0.003235
Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)	-0.016041
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	0.000329
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.002408
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.013077
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	-0.000237
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	-0.00215
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	-0.000533
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	0.000282
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	-0.06138
Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC	Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?	-0.027035
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)	-0.059854
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	0.059691
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	0.010211
Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 14, 2024 and Sep 14, 2024)	0.004083

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