RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Closed Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 56 · 179

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2025 and Jul 2, 2025)

Closed Jul 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 65 · 145

0%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 279

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 60 · 415

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 140 · 871

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 116 · 882

1%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 147 · 1042

4%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 156 · 1212

1%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 84 · 742

1%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 71 · 645

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How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2025 and Jul 2, 2025)

0%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

4%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

1%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Status

Season

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Filter By

Topics

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0%

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4%

1%

1%