RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

Closed May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 87 · 181

0%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

Closed May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 49 · 103

0%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 64 · 135

0%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 64 · 135

0%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 63 · 142

0%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

Closed Dec 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 66 · 150

0%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

Closed Dec 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 70 · 159

0%

Chance

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 12 · 17

4%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 71 · 645

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 70 · 600

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Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

0%

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

4%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

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