RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)

Closed Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 78 · 170

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)

Closed Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 50 · 115

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025)

Closed Jun 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 61 · 122

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)

Closed May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC · 134 · 244

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025)

Closed May 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 57 · 115

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025)

Closed Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC · 69 · 463

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025)

Closed Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC · 127 · 203

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025)

Closed Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 87 · 174

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025)

Closed Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 42 · 86

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025)

Closed Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 51 · 115