RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How much net income will ASML report in Q1 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 4 · 5

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 48 · 97

1%

Chance

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 62

17%

Chance

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 78 · 219

2%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 50 · 116

15%

Chance

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Closing Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC · 44 · 131

20%

Chance

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Closing Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 40 · 168

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 26 · 158

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 25 · 152

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 23 · 154

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How much net income will ASML report in Q1 2026?

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

1%

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

17%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

2%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

15%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

20%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

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Season

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1%

17%

2%

15%

20%