RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Emerging Technology (19) only
Forecaster Submissions (2) only
Geopolitical Security (24) only
Quickfire Forecasts (8) only
Russia-Ukraine War (10) only

Crowd Forecast

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

Closed Dec 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 66 · 150

0%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

Closed Dec 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 70 · 159

0%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2024 and Dec 22, 2024)

Closed Dec 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 75 · 390

0%

Chance

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 14, 2024 and Dec 14, 2024)

Closed Dec 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 86 · 444

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 47 · 105

0%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 22, 2024 and Sep 22, 2024)

Closed Sep 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 81 · 390

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 1, 2024 and Jul 1, 2024)

Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 43 · 97

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 1, 2024 and Jun 1, 2024)

Closed Jun 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 46 · 108

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2024 and May 1, 2024)

Closed May 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 52 · 143

0%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 22, 2024 and Jun 22, 2024)

Closed Jun 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 86 · 383

0%

Chance