RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC · 167 · 1566

What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 89 · 574

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)

Closed Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 80 · 165

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)

Closed Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM UTC · 45 · 62

Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?

Closed Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 66 · 270

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)

Closed Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC · 72 · 95

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)

Closed Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC · 64 · 83

Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?

Closed Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC · 87 · 445

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 66 · 701

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)

Closed Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 79 · 168