RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 64 · 101

37%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 88

45%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 15, 2024 and Nov 15, 2024)

Closed Nov 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC · 45 · 112

0%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)

Closed Nov 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 18 · 32

0%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)

Closed Nov 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 41 · 67

0%

Chance

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 12 · 17

4%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 15, 2024 and Oct 15, 2024)

Closed Oct 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC · 47 · 116

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 47 · 105

0%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 22, 2024 and Sep 22, 2024)

Closed Sep 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 81 · 390

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 1, 2024 and Jul 1, 2024)

Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 43 · 97

0%

Chance

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Select All

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

37%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

45%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 15, 2024 and Nov 15, 2024)

0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)

0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)

0%

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

4%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 15, 2024 and Oct 15, 2024)

0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 22, 2024 and Sep 22, 2024)

0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 1, 2024 and Jul 1, 2024)

0%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

37%

45%

0%

0%

0%

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%