RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025)	-0.018755
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	-0.008145
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	-0.069918
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	-0.008744
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	-0.000435
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.024889
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?	-0.01551
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.066674
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?	-0.084543
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.000157
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?	0.041133
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	0.012986
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?	-0.065927
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC	How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?	-0.030388
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC	What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025?	-0.020133
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres?	0.030067
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	-0.021548
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	0.375596
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?	0.010167
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?	-0.00031

Rene

Rene Scheffers

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