SeriousSculpin

Because there is one month left, this prediction likely won't happen.

I think as the technology progresses there will be more experimentation which will lead to a higher probability of runaway pathogens. If we include possible plant pathogens, these may cause famine through unintentional crop devastation. The likelihood that plants will pass pathogens to humans is small. 

Because the CDC and NI U have been dismantled and affected by the current administration, we may also see more problems arise. 

AI may also expedite both advances and mistakes that could lead to a pandemic. 

https://time.com/7014800/ai-pandemic-bioterrorism/

I'm looking at the current administrations trends and averaging the amount of times they exceeded 50,000 pounds. This may be a slightly less informed way to guess, but I'm curious to see how and if it aligns with reality. 

The only way he won't still be president within this timeframe is if he dies of old age or is assassinated.  Both of these things are highly unlikely within a month. 

This year the southwest saw less rain in winter than the year before that had many fires. Although this means there is less overgrown brush, it means more dead and dry brush in general. During the time that I have lived in LA, the fire risk increases every few years. Damage from invasive species, bark beetles of various kinds, fungus over the roots of oak trees, no indigenous controlled burns on days with no wind, and a crippled NOAA system we are likely to see more acreage burn this year. Currently there are massive fires in Canada, which indicates that it is dry enough to cause a major event, even in wetter cooler regions. 

As we're only asking about July, this would depend on how hot and windy we think it will be. Given that our forecasting systems are crippled it's a little difficult to guess, however, the fires in Topanga are thought to have been caused by fireworks, something people light off with abandon around the fourth of July. This, along with dry weather, uncontrolled invasive insects and plants, increases the risk of major large fires. 

Because there is one month left to this prediction the odds that it will happen within the six months have gone down. However, both Chinese and Japanese military have been bulking up: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-it-tracked-29-chinese-military-aircraft-10-naval-vessels/3550349

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/28/jasdf-japan-stealth-fighters-missiles-us-china/