Because there is one month left, this prediction likely won't happen.
0.397439
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Africa
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2026 02:54AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-28%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99%
(+28%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If I am wrong it will be China choosing to act while the US is in a moment not chaos, like war with Venezuela.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Yes
79%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think as the technology progresses there will be more experimentation which will lead to a higher probability of runaway pathogens. If we include possible plant pathogens, these may cause famine through unintentional crop devastation. The likelihood that plants will pass pathogens to humans is small.
Because the CDC and NI U have been dismantled and affected by the current administration, we may also see more problems arise.
AI may also expedite both advances and mistakes that could lead to a pandemic.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong because the technology that is used to push these things forward may also advance sufficiently to include fail safes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Yes
34%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm looking at the current administrations trends and averaging the amount of times they exceeded 50,000 pounds. This may be a slightly less informed way to guess, but I'm curious to see how and if it aligns with reality.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong because I'm not accounting for stricter border policies possibly deterring massive amounts of drugs from coming in. I don't even know if there is a correlation to be made. And, I'm not relying on trends over longer periods of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-17%)
Yes
100%
(+17%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The only way he won't still be president within this timeframe is if he dies of old age or is assassinated. Both of these things are highly unlikely within a month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong and Europe could make large enough military gains in the war on Ukraine and force him out of office.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why I Might Be Right
The strongest evidence for a "Yes" outcome is Serbia's December 6, 2025 adoption of the Law on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tax, which occurred well after the November 4, 2025 start date and establishes a specific tax rate of €4 per tonne of CO₂e for cement, steel, energy, and other industries.
Because Serbia didn’t have carbon pricing before, this is a genuinely "new" system rather than an expansion of existing policy.
The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive phase in early 2026, creating massive financial incentives for countries like Bosnia and Morocco to announce their own national carbon taxes before July. By taxing their own exports domestically, these countries keep the revenue rather than having their companies pay equivalent fees to the EU.
Most importantly, the resolution only requires one country to meet the definition, meaning Serbia's December law may have already satisfied the "Yes" condition.
Why might you be wrong?
Why I Might Be Wrong
While Serbia has established a tax rate, several bylaws and secondary regulations remain pending to make the system fully operational, and if these details aren't finalized by July 31, 2026, the announcement might fail the "Sufficiency of Detail" requirement for a clear operational structure.
Other potential candidates face similar obstacles: Malaysia and Brazil have announced plans, but their detailed mechanisms, particularly specific tax rates, are often delayed by political backlash or industrial lobbying, making it unlikely they'll meet the threshold before the deadline.
Finally, there's ambiguity around what constitutes "new": if a country like Turkey, which passed its Climate Law in July 2025, now releases ETS regulations, this might be interpreted as implementing a pre-existing 2025 announcement instead of announcing a genuinely new system.