martinsluis

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Relative Brier Score

366

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 41 88 1478 366 4056
Comments 12 13 113 87 147
Questions Forecasted 38 38 81 48 150
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 28 1 170
 Definitions
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
95% (0%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 27th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
36% (-3%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
64% (+3%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Things have been relatively calm in Africa. My feeling is that while the Ukraine and middle east wars rage on, support for would be coups is likely to relatively low. If and when the cited wars end, all that military capacity will have to find a new destination, maybe somewhere in Africa ...

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Why might you be wrong?

Ukraine and middle east wars may end.

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New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
97% (0%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Adjusting for time.

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Why might you be wrong?

 

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New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 59
10% (-5%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
42% (-4%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
42% (+3%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
6% (+6%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?

From Oct 1st do May 22th (233 days) there are 51 cases reported (6 more than 10 days ago), which if extrapolated would imply about 80 cases (6 less than 10 days ago). This number is slightly above the number of cases in the last 12 months (77). Adjusting

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Why might you be wrong?

 

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New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
4% (-4%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
12% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
17% (+1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
67% (+3%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Russia has been dragging its feet, presumably because they feel they currently have the upper hand on the war field. This points to a postponing of any cease fire or peace.

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Why might you be wrong?

 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
28% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
57% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
15% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
3% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
80% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
65% (+5%)
Less than 30 days
5% (-2%)
30 days
12% (-1%)
31-60 days
10% (-1%)
61-90 days
8% (-1%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
The recent pauses were reportedly violated repeatedly. If that serves as any indication, we should expect that any possible cease fire agreement might also be violated.
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Why might you be wrong?

Ukraine might be forced to capitulate

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