Confirmed previous forecast
0.335675
Relative Brier Score
291
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 81 | 1550 | 291 | 3981 |
| Comments | 1 | 15 | 102 | 75 | 135 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 27 | 70 | 37 | 139 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 170 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Angola
3%
(0%)
Kenya
20%
(0%)
Ethiopia
2%
(0%)
Nigeria
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files