Confirmed previous forecast
-0.153963
Relative Brier Score
1784
Forecasts
63
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 35 | 155 | 2014 | 1784 | 3547 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 48 |
| Questions Forecasted | 32 | 43 | 95 | 72 | 128 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 2 | 71 | 63 | 169 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
2%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2024 to Dec 3, 2025
91%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2024 to Dec 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(-1%)
Oman
0%
(-1%)
Qatar
1%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(-1%)
Tunisia
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+1%)
Yes
1%
(-1%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files