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Relative Brier Score
366
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 41 | 88 | 1478 | 366 | 4056 |
Comments | 12 | 13 | 113 | 87 | 147 |
Questions Forecasted | 38 | 38 | 81 | 48 | 150 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 170 |
Definitions |



Why do you think you're right?
Things have been relatively calm in Africa. My feeling is that while the Ukraine and middle east wars rage on, support for would be coups is likely to relatively low. If and when the cited wars end, all that military capacity will have to find a new destination, maybe somewhere in Africa ...
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine and middle east wars may end.


Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting for time.
Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?
From Oct 1st do May 22th (233 days) there are 51 cases reported (6 more than 10 days ago), which if extrapolated would imply about 80 cases (6 less than 10 days ago). This number is slightly above the number of cases in the last 12 months (77). Adjusting
Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been dragging its feet, presumably because they feel they currently have the upper hand on the war field. This points to a postponing of any cease fire or peace.
Why might you be wrong?




Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine might be forced to capitulate