Confirmed previous forecast
-0.563597
Relative Brier Score
1102
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 17 | 95 | 1088 | 1102 | 4824 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 138 | 153 | 213 |
| Questions Forecasted | 16 | 35 | 75 | 77 | 179 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 175 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Yes
37%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Yes
55%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
98%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
0%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
98%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-1%)
Yes
94%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files