Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
366
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 41 | 88 | 1478 | 366 | 4056 |
| Comments | 12 | 13 | 113 | 87 | 147 |
| Questions Forecasted | 38 | 38 | 81 | 48 | 150 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 170 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
36%
(-3%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
64%
(+3%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Things have been relatively calm in Africa. My feeling is that while the Ukraine and middle east wars rage on, support for would be coups is likely to relatively low. If and when the cited wars end, all that military capacity will have to find a new destination, maybe somewhere in Africa ...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine and middle east wars may end.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Angola
2%
(-1%)
Kenya
10%
(-10%)
Ethiopia
2%
(0%)
Nigeria
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
10%
(-5%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
42%
(-4%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
42%
(+3%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
6%
(+6%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
From Oct 1st do May 22th (233 days) there are 51 cases reported (6 more than 10 days ago), which if extrapolated would imply about 80 cases (6 less than 10 days ago). This number is slightly above the number of cases in the last 12 months (77). Adjusting
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
4%
(-4%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
12%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
17%
(+1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
67%
(+3%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been dragging its feet, presumably because they feel they currently have the upper hand on the war field. This points to a postponing of any cease fire or peace.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
May 22, 2025 to Nov 22, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
28%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
57%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
3%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+5%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(-2%)
30 days
12%
(-1%)
31-60 days
10%
(-1%)
61-90 days
8%
(-1%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
The recent pauses were reportedly violated repeatedly. If that serves as any indication, we should expect that any possible cease fire agreement might also be violated.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine might be forced to capitulate
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