47th
Accuracy Rank

martinsluis

About:
Show more

-0.159772

Relative Brier Score

1665

Forecasts

61

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 36 193 2076 1665 3428
Comments 0 1 17 14 46
Questions Forecasted 35 43 97 70 126
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 3 90 61 167
 Definitions
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 31st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
38% (+2%)
Yes
62% (-2%)
No

Reacting to current market movement.  

Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (0%)
Yes
Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
55% (0%)
No
Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
23% (-2%)
Togo
40% (-5%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations

Adjusting

Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 24%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
99% (0%)
More than or equal to 28%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Just over 3 weeks left.

Files
New Prediction

Recent clarification actually reduces the time window for this question. 

Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 26th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
98% (0%)
Yes
2% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 33rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (0%)
Yes
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
91% (0%)
No
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username