RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

Closed Dec 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 66 · 150

0%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

Closed Dec 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 70 · 159

0%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 116 · 882

1%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 147 · 1042

4%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 156 · 1212

1%

Chance

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 12 · 17

4%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 84 · 742

1%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2024 and Dec 22, 2024)

Closed Dec 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 75 · 390

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 248 · 1641

2%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 47 · 105

0%

Chance

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Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2024 and Dec 6, 2024)

0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

4%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

1%

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

4%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2024 and Dec 22, 2024)

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

2%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

0%

Status

Season

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Topics

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