RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Emerging Technology (20) only
Forecaster Submissions (2) only
Geopolitical Security (25) only
Quickfire Forecasts (28) only
Russia-Ukraine War (2) only

Crowd Forecast

Will China conduct military exercises within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan's shore between 1 February and 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 19 · 20

78%

Chance

How many Category 3 or higher hurricanes will be recorded in the Atlantic basin by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 10 · 13

Will North Korea conduct a missile test between 1 February 2026 and 31 March 2026, inclusive?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 12 · 12

93%

Chance

Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?

Closing Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 29 · 29

89%

Chance

How many incidents of piracy and armed robbery will be reported in the IMO GSIS database for February 2026?

Closing Mar 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 3 · 3

Will Denis Sassour Nguesso win the 2026 Presidential election in the Republic of the Congo?

Closing Mar 16, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 5 · 5

96%

Chance

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 33 · 62

30%

Chance

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 50 · 78

2%

Chance

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 62

17%

Chance

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

Closing May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 19 · 55

35%

Chance