RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Emerging Technology (20) only
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Geopolitical Security (25) only
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Russia-Ukraine War (2) only

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Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Closed Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC · 53 · 114

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Closed Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC · 118 · 571

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC · 89 · 491

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC · 132 · 664

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC · 121 · 862

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 118 · 803

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 234 · 1498

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Closed Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 82 · 160

Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Closed Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC · 38 · 87

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 94 · 805