RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)

Closed Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 33 · 75

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)

Closed Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 64 · 154

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC · 41 · 112

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024)

Closed Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 82 · 169

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2024 and Dec 15, 2024)

Closed Dec 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC · 48 · 113

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)

Closed Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 29 · 70

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)

Closed Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 63 · 156

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024)

Closed Dec 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 36 · 105

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024)

Closed Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 82 · 163

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 118 · 803