RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Your Score

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Closed Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 82 · 160

Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Closed Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC · 38 · 87

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 96 · 637

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 93 · 524

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 93 · 524

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 96 · 637

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Closed Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC · 73 · 356

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)

Closed Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 110 · 192

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)

Closed Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 48 · 108

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2024 and Feb 13, 2024)

Closed Feb 13, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 43 · 73