RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?

Closed Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC · 90 · 154

Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer?

Closed Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC · 134 · 248

Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?

Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 147 · 350

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024)

Closed Dec 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 36 · 105

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Closed Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC · 55 · 200

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)

Closed Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 70 · 167

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)

Closed Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 68 · 150

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024)

Closed Nov 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 56 · 115