RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?

Closed Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC · 90 · 154

Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer?

Closed Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC · 134 · 248

Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?

Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 147 · 350

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)

Closed Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 33 · 75

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)

Closed Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 64 · 154

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC · 41 · 112

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)

Closed Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 29 · 70

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)

Closed Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 63 · 156

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024)

Closed Dec 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 36 · 105

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231