RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?

Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 130 · 220

1%

Chance

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 57 · 71

9%

Chance

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 41 · 51

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 53 · 65

20%

Chance

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 66 · 95

Will a shelf-stable whole blood substitute be FDA approved for human use by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 52 · 67

6%

Chance

Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 40 · 53

21%

Chance

Will the FDA grant market approval for a brain-computer interface (BCI) with indications for use in able-bodied individuals by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 64

6%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 64 · 135

0%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 64 · 135

0%

Chance

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Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?

1%

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

9%

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

20%

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Will a shelf-stable whole blood substitute be FDA approved for human use by 31 December 2030?

6%

Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?

21%

Will the FDA grant market approval for a brain-computer interface (BCI) with indications for use in able-bodied individuals by 31 December 2030?

6%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

0%

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Season

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1%

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6%

21%

6%

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