RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Closed Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 56 · 179

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 28, 2025 and Jul 28, 2025)

Closed Jul 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC · 103 · 207

0%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2025 and Jul 2, 2025)

Closed Jul 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 65 · 145

0%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 279

Will China implement new national-level measures that regulate AI development or restrict its use in 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 54 · 117

94%

Chance

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 60 · 415

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 140 · 871

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 57 · 71

9%

Chance

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 41 · 51

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 53 · 65

20%

Chance

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How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 28, 2025 and Jul 28, 2025)

0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2025 and Jul 2, 2025)

0%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Will China implement new national-level measures that regulate AI development or restrict its use in 2025?

94%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

9%

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

20%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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0%

0%

94%

9%

20%