RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)

Closed Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 78 · 170

0%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)

Closed Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 50 · 115

0%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025)

Closed Jun 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 61 · 122

0%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

Closed May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 87 · 181

0%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

Closed May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 49 · 103

0%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025)

Closed May 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 57 · 115

0%

Chance

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 57 · 71

9%

Chance

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 41 · 51

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 53 · 65

20%

Chance

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 66 · 95

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Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)

0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)

0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025)

0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025)

0%

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

9%

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

20%

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

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Season

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9%

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