JohnProctor

The Trump administration seems opposed to export restrictions in general, the focus on tarriffs as a way to protect US industry seems that it would not favor export restrictions.

The White House has rejected several plans to replace the Biden regulations.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/11/white-house-nixed-proposal-to-tighten-ai-chip-exports-to-china-00669103

Not much happened at COP30: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/12/what-happened-cop30-whats-next/

In addition, most countries that would seem likely to have a carbon tax or ETS, have implemented one.

https://ourworldindata.org/carbon-pricing

The criteria for a YES resolution is fairly restrictive: while 13 countries are considering some form of regulation, most if not all would not count as YES.

European NATO members are signing big defense procurement deals but I think this is unlikely to happen because:

• 1 billion is a huge contract: Germany's recent defense acquisition contracts totaled 2.9 billion euros across a dozen contracts and Germany is the EU's biggest economy. It seems far-fetched that several countries could spend that much, particularly on a single contract.
• By July 2026 is very soon for this big of a contract, there would have to be an event precipitating rapid decision-making. Under current circumstances, it's unclear why that would be the case.
• With non-European suppliers: again using Germany's example, Germany strongly favored domestic suppliers and European suppliers.

The combination of at least 2 countries signing huge contracts and with non-European suppliers in a short time-frame (8 months away) seems far-fetched.

https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/e5a3e-germany-expands-defence-industrial-strategy-with-major-procurement-push