Confirmed previous forecast
0.090053
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 24 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
MENA,
Russia-Europe
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(-10%)
18
0%
(-10%)
17
100%
(+20%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Ok, I was wrong. Nobody cares about this issue anymore.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Wrong once, not twice.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
IDK
Files
Why might you be wrong?
IDK
Files
Thanks again for the reply and for highlighting that point about 50/50 forecast.
it's a great reminder that good forecasting needs substantive reasoning to be useful (and properly calibrated!).
My input comes from one regular participant to another, without presuming any hierarchy (not a a RAND employee, researcher, adjunct forecaster, or part of their staff.)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is today's world.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump becomes Pro- Europe, which is quite unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The global economy is weak so the gov may not add any carbon tax.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Why wrong? It's almost 50-50.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's very likely that they will attack a commercial vessel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They don't have the money to do so.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Don't underestimate the low possibility things.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's indeed not possible.
Files