Confirmed previous forecast
0.220787
Relative Brier Score
100
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
East Asia Security,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Cybersecurity,
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 9, 2025 06:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 9, 2025 to Feb 9, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Aug 9, 2025 to Feb 9, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 9, 2025 06:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 9, 2025 to Feb 9, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Aug 9, 2025 to Feb 9, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2025 11:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 27, 2025 to Jan 27, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Jul 27, 2025 to Jan 27, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
VP
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 10:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2025 to Jan 20, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Jul 20, 2025 to Jan 20, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files