RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 64 · 101

37%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 88

45%

Chance

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 41 · 107

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 27 · 66

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 28 · 76

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 155 · 480

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 102 · 514

How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 79 · 526

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 63 · 259

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC · 76 · 344

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