RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?	-0.001645
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.120622
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?	-0.030795
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.093818
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?	0.190713
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?	-0.002014
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?	-0.040462
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	0.009639
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?	0.43936
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC	How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?	-0.045749
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC	What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025?	0.082324
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres?	-0.028833
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	0.161904
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	-0.007735
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?	-0.018279
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?	-0.001461
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	-0.002113
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	-0.000062
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?	0.165503
Jun 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 28, 2025 and Jun 28, 2025)	0.0016

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