RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 56 · 81

4%

Chance

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 40 · 64

3%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 34 · 42

13%

Chance

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 45

65%

Chance

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 24 · 39

75%

Chance

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Closing Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 37 · 62

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 34 · 58

0%

Chance

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Closing Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 33 · 57

5%

Chance

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Closing Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC · 39 · 76

20%

Chance

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Closing Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 34 · 87

Status

Season

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Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

4%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

3%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

13%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

65%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

75%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

0%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

5%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

20%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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4%

3%

13%

65%

75%

0%

5%

20%