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Question
Your Score
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)
Closed
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
·
88
·
231
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Closed
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
·
88
·
231
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Closed
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC
·
55
·
200
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)
Closed
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
·
70
·
167
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)
Closed
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
·
68
·
150
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024)
Closed
Nov 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
·
56
·
115
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 1, 2024 and Nov 1, 2024)
Closed
Nov 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC
·
45
·
121
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024)
Closed
Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC
·
78
·
165
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024)
Closed
Oct 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
·
63
·
149
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024)
Closed
Oct 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
·
68
·
165
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